The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.04%.  The dollar gave up an overnight advance and turned slightly lower after the World Bank cut its 2025 global growth outlook.  Also, lower T-note yields today have weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.

The dollar today initially moved higher on signs of progress in the US-China trade talks.  On Monday evening, President Trump stated that the US was "doing well with China" and that he was "only getting good reports" on the talks.

The World Bank today cut its 2025 global GDP forecast to +2.3% from a +2.7% estimate in January due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

The markets are discounting the chances at 0% for a -25 bp rate cut after the June 17-18 FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.11%.  The euro is moving higher today after the Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence index rose more than expected to a 1-year high.  Also, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann boosted the euro when he said the ECB may keep interest rates on hold into the autumn.

The Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence index rose +8.3 to a 1-year high of 0.2, stronger than expectations of -5.5.

ECB Governing Council member Holzmann said, "The inflation goal is already in reach, so for me it makes sense for the ECB to not cut rates until autumn, to be sure that the uncertainty we have everywhere about the economy, we don't experience another bout of inflation."

Swaps are discounting the chances at 13% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.10%.  The yen fell to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar today on dovish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda, who said Japan's price trend still has some ways to go to reach 2%.  Losses in the yen are contained after Japan's May machine tool orders rose for the eighth consecutive month.  Also, lower T-note yields today are giving the yen a boost. 

Japan May machine tool orders rose +3.4% y/y, the eighth consecutive month orders have risen.

BOJ Governor Ueda said the BOJ is still "some distance" from its 2% inflation goal, and it will keep raising interest rates if it becomes confident enough about improvement in the price trend.

August gold (GCQ25) today is up +11.70 (+0.35%), and July silver (SIN25) is down -0.076 (-0.21%).  Precious metals today are mixed.  Precious metals garnered support today from a weaker dollar.  Also, dovish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda boosted demand for precious metal as a store of value when he said the BOJ is still "some distance" from its 2% inflation goal, suggesting the BOJ will not be raising interest rates in the near term.  Today's weak labor news from the UK may prompt the BOE to cut interest rates, a bullish factor for precious metals, after UK May payrolled employees fell -109,000, the biggest decline in 5 years.  In addition, continued buying of gold from China's central bank is bullish for gold prices after the PBOC reported Saturday that it added 60,000 troy ounces of gold to its reserves in May, the seventh consecutive month it has boosted its gold holdings.  Finally, precious metals prices have continued safe-haven support from global trade tensions and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Today's strength in stocks has curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals.  In addition, signs of progress in US-China trade talks are reducing safe-haven demand for precious metals. 

Silver prices have support from today's global economic news that showed the Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence index rose to a 1-year high, and Japan's May machine tool orders rose for the eighth consecutive month, positive factors for industrial metals demand.  Fund buying is also supporting gains in silver after silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-year high Monday.